Another good year keeps the Social Security system on life support

Contrary to popular belief, the Social Security System actually makes money….sometimes. The only things the trust fund assets are allowed to invest in is treasury securities which they refer to as “interest bearing special issue” bonds. So when interest rates go down, the value of these bonds and notes go up therefore raising the value of the Social Security trust fund. It has happened fairly often in the 10 years or so which typically adds more time to the D-Day moment of when the benefits may have to lowered without some kind of legislative intervention. If the “special issue” bonds go up in value, it generally means the system can stay solvent for another year.

The Social Security Administration comes out with their annual report every year around this time and according to the newest report the above mentioned is exactly what’s happened. They give the prognosis for the program for the next 10 years and the next 75 years using a host of different economic numbers and stats like wage growth, population, mortality and immigration to try to get a handle on how many future claimants there will be.

The harbinger of bad things to come is what’s they call the “net-cash outflows” which means after everything that comes in and costs are taken out, the administration had to dip into the trust fund reserves to cover the shortfall. Recently they’ve been warning that this could happen but at the end of 2018, 3 billion of unexpected income made it profitable.

For 2019, the margin was a little slimmer. At the beginning of 2019, the total was $2,895,174, 945,000(almost 2.9 trillion) and it ended the year at $2, 897, 492, 826, 000 — $2.3 billion higher. So the system didn’t have to dip into reserves to cover the 64 million checks it issues to it’s recipients. However as positive as that is, it was the lowest gain since 1982. What about 2020?

Well I ‘m glad you asked. The Administration’s projections for 2020 not so rosy. A lot of people blame Social Security’s woes on the baby boomers but they might be just part of the problem. Here are some other contributors:

1) People are living longer. The system was never meant to pay people for 20 yrs after retirement. More 80 yrs olds out there than ever.

2) Immigration is down. Usually the people who are immigrants are typically younger and will pay into the system longer ergo supporting more of the older recipients.

3) Birth rates are down. People are not having as many babies as they did in the past. Younger workers pay into it and the older workers’ payments stay funded.

4) More high earners collecting more. These beneficiaries are getting a higher payout than the system has ever paid. And they usually live longer.

There’s a Connecticut democrat named John Larson who introduced legislation that would raise the payroll taxes from 6.2 % to 7.4% and added other rules about any beneficiary with income under $49,000 would not have to report their Social Security income. That was back in 2013– there’s been calls to vote on whether to vote on it(yes that’s really how it works in Congress) to no avail. Social Security has been a 3rd rail for politicians but with the upcoming shortfalls acting sooner than later would be advisable.

That’s all for now. More to come in this brave new decade.

How will workplace automation effect the employee’s retirement?

It’s all around us, isn’t it? Machines are taking the place of humans from the most menial repetitive tasks to the most dangerous, it seems machines are replacing us quicker than ever. Computers do taxes, payroll, fly planes and cars. Robots run by their machine brother computers manufacture everything from hot dogs, mining, underwater jobs at depths to deadly for human beings, even fairly invasive surgery. How many of us have lost a job to a machine? Its happening at a rate that can jeopardize our retirement lives. If you lose a job in your peak earning years to a robot, it could be impactful to your retirement savings; but this is nothing new. Our forefathers faced similar plights throughout time.

What happened the first time someone brought in the horse to pull a log across a meadow or a plow through a field to plant crops in Stone Age times? He had to learn another skill. He had to understand this animal in essence this new machine that just took his job. He had to learn how to control it, maintain it and the extra bonus–how to get it to propagate.

What about when someone found a way to put 2 circular discs on a travois making it a wagon? Now a 10 year old child could pull a load that formerly was dragged along by a full grown man who had the strength to do it. Now it would take less effort and power so a child could or an elderly person. Now the full grown adult had to learn how to maybe make wheels, or mount them or implement them in other tasks like grinding flour instead of using a blunt instrument to pound wheat into powder. The printing press, water pump, etc all made people change their way of doing things.

Then comes the industrial revolution with all of the manufacturing wisdom of the ages and once again you had to learn a new skill. If you were producing cloth and clothes the old fashioned way with a loom or processing it by hand suddenly it was a brave new world. Maybe you could learn how to maintain the machine, or build them or sell them. The entrepreneurs who started these large mills in the UK and New England as a lure to change from the agrarian economy to an industrial one, offered the common uneducated folk a chance to not became old and broken physically from manual labor or the dangers of fishing in the ocean in open boats. Urbanization–piles of historical books about this 19th century phenomenon wherein everyone left the countryside and crammed into the cities because that’s where the jobs were- made London the biggest city in the world throughout the 1800’s or at least the one with the fastest growth.

In terms of retirement the industrial revolution helped the common uneducated person immensely as it allowed them to get into a pension if they lived long enough. It also allowed them to eventually get into labor unions and benefit from collective bargaining agreements which gave them the 5 day work week, health insurance, pensions and a break room. It allowed the living standards of thousands of regular unskilled laborers to grow. However uneducated as they may have been they had to come out of the grain fields and learn a new skill. Could the success of implementing robotics into manufacturing in this modern world be history just repeating itself? There’s evidence to suggest it is.

What if you can’t or won’t learn new skills? Some say the older worker of today may be less inclined to learn how computer assisted tasks like CAD-CAM. My client Bob was and still is an outstanding illustrator but when CAD-CAM(computer aided drafting) came along, he kind of resigned himself to retirement because of the intimidation of trying to pick up this way of doing his job. He was truly gifted when he had a pencil and a ruler in his hands but “those damn machines” compromised what made him great. All throughout history, the older highly skilled person was replaced directly or indirectly by the machine especially in manufacturing.

Even animals are not exempt from the effect of machines on their reality. The automobile and locomotive made the horse obsolete and only something the wealthy own nowadays. Even the usefulness of dogs and cats in working environments as we have different ways of herding sheep and catching mice. Dogs can still sniff out drugs, weapons and some police work but the widespread job market of yesteryear for our 4 footed friends has faded decades ago.

The effect of machines in the workplace certainly can be impactful on that senior employee who wanted just another couple of years to pad his 401k account. The younger worker even as young as 50 has already seen their job/role probably change a few times in the last decade or so and could be more comfortable than the senior employee. The mobility of 401K and 403B plans with rule changes in the past 20 years underscores that narrative.

However gentle reader, experts say it takes at least 10 years for such changes to really be implemented so there’s no need to hit the panic button just yet. You may even be able to ramp up your retirement savings before the machines take over. Maybe you remember when calculators that would do the simplest of math were the size of a phone book– mid 1970’s maybe? It took a while for such a useful device to become the size of a credit card….maybe 1994? So there’s still time.

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